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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a common neurodevelopmental disturbance afflicting a variety of functions. The recent computational focus suggesting aberrant Bayesian inference in ASD has yielded promising but conflicting results in attempting to explain a wide variety of phenotypes by canonical computations. Here, we used a naturalistic visual path integration task that combines continuous action with active sensing and allows tracking of subjects’ dynamic belief states. Both groups showed a previously documented bias pattern by overshooting the radial distance and angular eccentricity of targets. For both control and ASD groups, these errors were driven by misestimated velocity signals due to a nonuniform speed prior rather than imperfect integration. We tracked participants’ beliefs and found no difference in the speed prior, but there was heightened variability in the ASD group. Both end point variance and trajectory irregularities correlated with ASD symptom severity. With feedback, variance was reduced, and ASD performance approached that of controls. These findings highlight the need for both more naturalistic tasks and a broader computational perspective to understand the ASD phenotype and pathology.